How is the prop firm pass probability calculated?

We use a classical Gambler's Ruin mathematical formula combining your win rate, risk-to-reward ratio, risk per trade, and total drawdown limit to calculate the probability of reaching profit targets before hitting the maximum loss threshold.

What is Expected Value (EV) in prop trading?

Expected Value (EV) measures the net mathematical return per challenge purchase across many attempts, accounting for pass probabilities, challenge costs, and expected funded account payouts.

Quantitative Trading Simulator

Prop Firm Math & EV Calculator

Understand the real statistics behind challenge evaluations. Calculate your statistical probability of passing, Expected Value (EV), and risk of ruin before risking capital.

Challenge & Strategy Parameters

Preset Challenge Tier

Account Size$100,000

Challenge Cost ($)$499

Phase 1 Target8%

Max Drawdown10%

Your Strategy Metrics

Historical Win Rate50%

Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R)1 : 2.0

Risk Per Trade1.0%

Expected Value (EV) Per Attempt

+$7,879

POSITIVE EDGE

Your strategy generates positive mathematical expectancy. Over multiple attempts, each $499 challenge purchase is worth approximately +$7,879 in net profit.

Pass Probability

93.1%

Combined Phase 1 (95.0%) & 2 (98.0%)

Risk of Ruin (Fail Rate)

6.9%

Chance of breaching drawdown first

Break-Even Win Rate

33.3%

At 1:2.0 Risk-Reward

Est. Cost Per Payout

$998

Across ~2 expected attempts

Broker Judge Quantitative Advice

To maximize statistical pass rate, keep risk per trade at or below 1.0%. Higher risk (e.g. 2%+) drastically raises the Gambler's Ruin probability before you can reach the 8% target.

Find Firms with Best Drawdown Rules